Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:34:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc630…64a3 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$717 (-34%) realized −$625 · open −$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$637
other 28% −$276
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-64.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -61.0% -64.7% 14% 14% -62.7%
≤30d 7 -61.0% -64.7% 14% 14% -62.7%
≤90d 7 -61.0% -64.7% 14% 14% -62.7%
all 7 -61.0% -64.7% 14% 14% -62.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.7% 14% -62.7%
10% -68.1% 14% -66.3%
15% -71.2% 14% -69.6%
20% -74.0% 14% -72.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$364 vs −$197 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized−$625
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage6d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Irvine: Alina Shcherbinina vs Monika Ekstrand Monika Ekstrand 27¢ 20¢ $371 $279 −$92 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 20 $317 −$309 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $256 −$250 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $210 +$364 +173%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Irvine: Alina Shcherbinina vs Monika Ekstrand BUY Monika Ekstrand 29¢ $72 1h
ITF Irvine: Alina Shcherbinina vs Monika Ekstrand BUY Monika Ekstrand 27¢ $102 1h
ITF Irvine: Alina Shcherbinina vs Monika Ekstrand BUY Monika Ekstrand 26¢ $102 1h
ITF Irvine: Alina Shcherbinina vs Monika Ekstrand BUY Monika Ekstrand 26¢ $102 1h
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo BUY Adolfo Vallejo 3¢ $103 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 7¢ $317 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $256 27h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 36¢ $210 30h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 29¢ $204 30h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 49¢ $305 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY 8¢ $308 31h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.54 · official $278.54 (match) · 14 history records