Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc631…3f80 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$368 (+12%) realized +$368 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$368
economics 19% $0
other 19% $0
politics 12% −$1
culture 6% −$1
finance 6% +$4
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 4 +20.2% +8.7% 50% 25% +31.3%
all 15 +8.3% -2.0% 40% 13% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 13% +1.2%
10% -11.4% 13% -8.5%
15% -20.0% 13% -17.3%
20% -27.8% 13% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$1 · ×90.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×60.61 per $1 lost it wins $60.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$368
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage128d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 23 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $95 $0 -0%
Ducks vs. Wild Apr 15 $234 +$208 +89%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $31 −$3 -8%
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans Mar 22 $288 +$162 +56%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 18 $194 +$4 +2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 14 $3 $0 -13%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 05 $282 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 28 $297 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $296 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 20 $595 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $295 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $96 1h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 31d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $95 49d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $95 53d
Ducks vs. Wild BUY Wild 53¢ $234 70d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $11 83d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $12 85d
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans SELL Cavaliers 100¢ $450 93d
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans BUY Cavaliers 64¢ $288 93d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? SELL No 99¢ $197 96d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $97 96d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $98 98d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 97¢ $194 98d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $3 100d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $18 100d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $19 101d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $3 101d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 105d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 99¢ $197 105d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 107d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 99¢ $198 107d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $281 109d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $282 111d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $296 114d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $297 116d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $296 118d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $296 120d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $298 122d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $298 124d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $294 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records