Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C6 0xc632…6871 crypto 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$339 (-1%) realized −$236 · open −$278
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%32W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$453per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$53,477now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$3
14 days−$217
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$229
crypto 1% −$209
sports 0% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -27.2% -34.1% 31% 31% -9.0%
≤30d 72 -31.4% -37.9% 29% 28% -20.1%
≤90d 110 -24.4% -31.6% 29% 28% -25.3%
all 110 -24.4% -31.6% 29% 28% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 28% -25.3%
10% -38.1% 27% -32.4%
15% -44.1% 26% -39.0%
20% -49.6% 25% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$53,477
Realized−$236
Unrealized−$278
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses32 / 78
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)110 / 123
History coverage62d
Avg bet$453
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $11,500 $11,723 +$224 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $11,940 $11,654 −$286 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $5,673 $7,929 +$2,256 (+40%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $8,085 $7,029 −$1,056 (-13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $6,382 $5,819 −$563 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $6,232 $4,891 −$1,341 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3,876 $4,369 +$493 (+13%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 94¢ $25 $46 +$21 (+83%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Yes 43¢ 36¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Yes 68¢ 65¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Yes 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 +$9 +170%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$8 +81%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $20 +$9 +45%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $76 +$28 +37%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $9 +$10 +109%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $25 −$18 -70%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 13 $4 +$7 +171%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$1 -2%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 08 $42 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 06 $6 +$6 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Antoine Semenyo: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 0 - 0 Burnley FC? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $14 12m
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $5 1h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $18 1h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 1h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $10 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 6h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $5 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 19h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 23h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $18 23h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 23h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 23h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53,477.16 · official $53,477.16 (match) · 319 history records