Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:58:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc638…e298 sports 588 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,293 (-3%) realized −$12,617 · open +$324
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate93%540W / 43L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$723per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$703est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4,377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$748
7 days−$859
14 days−$4,946
30 days−$5,119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$12,971
other 7% +$191
world 0% +$51
crypto 0% −$244
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -2.0% -11.3% 85% 9% -11.5%
≤30d 364 -0.5% -10.0% 93% 5% -11.5%
≤90d 583 -1.9% -11.2% 93% 4% -12.3%
all 583 -1.9% -11.2% 93% 4% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 4% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 3% -20.7%
15% -27.5% 3% -28.3%
20% -34.6% 2% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$747 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$4,377
Realized−$12,617
Unrealized+$324
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses540 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$703
Open positions3
Markets (closed)583 / 588
History coverage60d
Avg bet$723
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 583 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5 Over 48¢ 86¢ $1,600 $2,867 +$1,267 (+79%)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 Over 96¢ 100¢ $1,200 $1,253 +$53 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 97¢ 50¢ $500 $256 −$244 (-49%)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $700 $1 −$699 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $802 −$800 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $22 −$21 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $6 +$4 +73%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $600 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $5,001 +$44 +1%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3,001 +$29 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,101 +$41 +4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $31 +$76 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,603 +$87 +2%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,066 +$53 +5%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5,001 +$30 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 14 $170 +$2 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $401 +$33 +8%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 Jun 14 $935 +$1,065 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $500 +$10 +2%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Jun 14 $650 +$12 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 14 $200 +$3 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 14 $1,401 +$25 +2%
Spread: Knicks (-15.5) Jun 14 $300 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
1H Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 109.5 Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 172.5 Jun 14 $140 +$1 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 14 $150 +$2 +1%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 173.5 Jun 14 $270 +$3 +1%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 Jun 14 $500 +$4 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 100.5 Jun 14 $500 +$8 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 115.5 Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4,173 +$90 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $700 −$478 -68%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 13 $180 −$180 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5 Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 171.5 Jun 12 $100 +$1 +2%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 172.5 Jun 12 $100 +$1 +2%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $124 +$1 +1%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 12 $40 +$1 +2%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 12 $158 +$2 +1%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $1,302 +$66 +5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $705 +$14 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5 BUY Over 48¢ $609 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,016 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 93¢ $701 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 95¢ $200 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 95¢ $200 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 95¢ $200 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 96¢ $100 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 97¢ $400 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 46¢ $711 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $102 21h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 99¢ $600 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $102 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $6 25h
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 99¢ $5,001 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 97¢ $501 2d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $3,001 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $700 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 28¢ $31 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY 75¢ $10 3d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND Will BUY 64¢ $102 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $400 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $400 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,377.14 · official $4,427.14 · 1552 history records