trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +11.8% | +1.2% | 100% | 100% | +1.2% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -27.0% | -33.9% | 50% | 50% | -5.3% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -56.5% | -60.7% | 33% | 33% | -16.8% |
| all | 18 | -13.1% | -21.3% | 72% | 22% | -4.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.3% | 22% | -4.8% |
| 10% | -28.9% | 6% | -13.9% |
| 15% | -35.7% | 6% | -22.2% |
| 20% | -42.0% | 6% | -29.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 85¢ | 84¢ | $85 | $84 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 4¢ | $3 | $4 | +$0 (+12%) |
| Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 20–30%? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | $36 | $0 | −$36 (-99%) |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-88%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 27 | $88 | +$10 | +12% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 21 | $9 | −$6 | -66% |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co | May 01 | $87 | +$13 | +15% |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr | Apr 09 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Apr 09 | $28 | −$28 | -100% |
| Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr | Apr 09 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Mar 17 | $3 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Mar 17 | $62 | +$5 | +8% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Mar 01 | $65 | +$35 | +53% |
| Will there be less than 8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? | Feb 27 | $19 | +$1 | +3% |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | Feb 21 | $19 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 12 | $38 | +$5 | +13% |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | Feb 10 | $45 | +$4 | +8% |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | Feb 10 | $24 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 | Feb 03 | $96 | +$4 | +4% |
| Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)? | Jan 31 | $100 | +$4 | +4% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 30 | $90 | +$1 | +1% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Jan 07 | $4 | $0 | -3% |