trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -2.3% | -11.6% | 0% | 0% | -10.5% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +2.6% | -7.2% | 43% | 14% | -6.2% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +2.6% | -7.2% | 43% | 14% | -6.2% |
| all | 25 | -5.2% | -14.3% | 48% | 8% | -8.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.3% | 8% | -8.1% |
| 10% | -22.5% | 4% | -16.9% |
| 15% | -30.0% | 0% | -25.0% |
| 20% | -36.8% | 0% | -32.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $70 | $70 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $6 | $0 | -4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 18 | $79 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $142 | −$1 | -1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $88 | +$28 | +32% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 07 | $7 | $0 | -7% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 07 | $53 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 06 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $51 | $0 | +1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 05 | $109 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 04 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 01 | $33 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 30 | $57 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 28 | $52 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $6 | +$1 | +14% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 11 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? | May 20 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 15 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? | Apr 13 | $6 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? | Apr 13 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Robert Morris vs. Alabama | Mar 20 | $8 | $0 | -1% |
| Eastern Michigan vs. Ohio | Mar 03 | $10 | −$2 | -25% |
| Idaho vs. Montana State | Mar 03 | $20 | −$10 | -48% |