Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc63d…23c5 sports 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$234 (-15%) realized −$232 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%42W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$96
other 43% −$155
world 5% −$2
politics 3% +$1
culture 3% −$5
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 23 -55.3% -59.6% 22% 22% -63.0%
≤90d 122 -20.7% -28.2% 34% 28% -24.0%
all 122 -20.7% -28.2% 34% 28% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 28% -24.0%
10% -35.1% 28% -31.3%
15% -41.4% 27% -37.9%
20% -47.1% 25% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$232
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses42 / 80
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage62d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid $28 $25 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Sagan Tosu vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sagan Tosu win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 +$5 +101%
Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $5 +$8 +158%
Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $10 +$5 +50%
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. Ventforet Kōfu: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Ventforet Kōfu win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Kōchi United SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $10 +$7 +73%
FC Gifu vs. Gainare Tottori: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $7 −$7 -99%
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Club Libertad vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC: O/U 2.5 May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Club Libertad vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC: O/U 3.5 May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 2.5 May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 4.5 May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 3.5 May 27 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 26 $11 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? May 26 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Rosenborg BK win on 2026-05-25? May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. Rosenborg BK: O/U 3.5 May 26 $8 −$8 -100%
KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. Rosenborg BK: O/U 2.5 May 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Tromsø IL vs. Aalesunds FK: O/U 4.5 May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Tromsø IL vs. Aalesunds FK: O/U 2.5 May 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Tromsø IL vs. Aalesunds FK: O/U 3.5 May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Molde FK win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Molde FK: O/U 3.5 May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Molde FK: O/U 2.5 May 25 $16 +$9 +57%
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Hamarkameratene vs. Lillestrøm SK end in a draw? May 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? May 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
CR Brasil vs. AA Ponte Preta: O/U 2.5 May 25 $13 +$13 +101%
CR Brasil vs. AA Ponte Preta: O/U 3.5 May 25 $8 +$20 +262%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 May 25 $15 +$12 +76%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5 May 25 $10 +$20 +196%
UD Las Palmas vs. Real Zaragoza: O/U 2.5 May 24 $15 −$15 -100%
UD Las Palmas vs. Real Zaragoza: O/U 3.5 May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
CR Brasil vs. AA Ponte Preta: O/U 4.5 May 24 $5 +$14 +264%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Team Liquid $29 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 17h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 7d
Will Ventforet Kōfu win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 21d
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. Ventforet Kōfu: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 21d
Will Sagan Tosu win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 21d
Sagan Tosu vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $7 21d
FC Gifu vs. Gainare Tottori: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $7 21d
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $7 21d
Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 21d
Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 21d
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 21d
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Kōchi United SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 21d
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $3 21d
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $5 21d
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $7 21d
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $12 21d
Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 30d
Club Libertad vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $3 30d
Club Libertad vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 30d
São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $4 31d
São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $8 31d
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante SELL Estral Esports 87¢ $11 31d
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante BUY Estral Esports 86¢ $11 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 31d
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $26 31d
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $26 31d
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $27 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.49 · official $25.49 (match) · 307 history records