Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:03:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C6 0xc63e…30e3 other 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$787 (-14%) realized −$661 · open −$126
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%24W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$474now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$553
7 days+$87
14 days+$70
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$113
sports 25% −$79
world 14% −$361
politics 7% −$344
economics 3% −$184
culture 2% −$60
tech 1% +$31
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -23.5% -30.8% 45% 42% -6.9%
≤30d 38 -20.4% -28.0% 45% 39% -7.7%
≤90d 38 -20.4% -28.0% 45% 39% -7.7%
all 57 -19.3% -27.0% 42% 35% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 35% -23.6%
10% -33.9% 32% -30.9%
15% -40.3% 28% -37.6%
20% -46.2% 21% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$72 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$474
Realized−$661
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses24 / 33
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage398d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 66¢ $500 $396 −$104 (-21%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+30%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Yes $50 $13 −$37 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$50 +50%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $51 +$29 +57%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $203 +$175 +86%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$77 +76%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$136 +67%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $102 +$187 +184%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $51 +$45 +90%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $103 +$24 +23%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 +$2 +3%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $102 +$111 +109%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $62 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$205 +67%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$166 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $121 +$58 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$131 +321%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 +$41 +27%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Trump withdraw the U.S. from NATO in 2025? Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 14 $157 −$157 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 10 $10 −$10 -100%
US military action against Iran by Sunday? Jun 21 $300 −$300 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? Jun 19 $100 +$8 +8%
US military action against Iran before August? Jun 19 $100 +$8 +8%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 19 $200 +$22 +11%
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes? Jun 06 $8 +$32 +400%
Trump x Xi talk before June? Jun 02 $18 +$2 +12%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $69 +$31 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $51 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $151 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $51 21h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $203 21h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 20¢ $51 22h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 10¢ $10 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $339 25h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $289 25h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $102 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 27h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $10 42h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 42¢ $121 43h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $53 43h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 46h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over $10 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $51 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $474.21 · official $474.27 (match) · 121 history records