Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc641…afb0 other 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%16W / 235L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$25
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$37
sports 23% −$22
politics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$9
economics 6% −$6
crypto 6% $0
world 3% −$3
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 57 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 251 +0.1% -9.5% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses16 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)251 / 252
History coverage138d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $150 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $404 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $144 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $327 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $275 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $238 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $545 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $437 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $227 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $175 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $368 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $357 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $70 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $412 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $247 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $629 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $71 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $621 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $696 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $323 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $331 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $873 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $362 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $544 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $509 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $553 −$2 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $292 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $259 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $262 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $66 23m
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $66 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $66 3h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $66 3h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $67 4h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $67 6h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $67 7h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $67 13h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $67 14h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $67 19h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 20h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $67 22h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 24h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $67 25h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $67 26h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $67 34h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $67 36h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $67 40h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $67 42h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $67 43h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $67 45h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $67 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $68 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $68 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $68 3d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $68 3d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $68 3d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $68 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.24 · official $66.24 (match) · 1421 history records