Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:51:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C6 0xc646…e394 sports 332 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,883 (-3%) realized −$1,893 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%174W / 156L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$855est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,115
7 days−$1,115
14 days+$1,842
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,425
world 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -40.2% -45.9% 43% 43% -47.9%
≤30d 177 -10.3% -18.9% 51% 51% -9.5%
≤90d 330 -5.0% -14.0% 53% 53% -12.6%
all 330 -5.0% -14.0% 53% 53% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 53% -12.6%
10% -22.3% 52% -21.0%
15% -29.8% 45% -28.6%
20% -36.6% 37% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$190 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$1,893
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses174 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$855
Open positions2
Markets (closed)330 / 332
History coverage50d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $147 $154 +$7 (+5%)
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner x5 Gaming 46¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+117%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,030 +$470 +46%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$2 +48%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $90 −$90 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $1,494 −$1,493 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,617 +$883 +55%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $2,293 +$2,707 +118%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $29 −$29 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $63 −$63 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $158 −$158 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $525 −$525 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1,219 +$1,281 +105%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $3 +$2 +57%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $3 +$2 +65%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $3 +$2 +76%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $515 +$235 +46%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $3 +$2 +93%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 05 $2 +$3 +105%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $3 +$2 +79%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $3 +$2 +44%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $3 +$2 +50%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1,825 +$675 +37%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY x5 Gaming 46¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 68¢ $1,030 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $149 7h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 80¢ $4 7h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 67¢ $3 10h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 41¢ $2 10h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $3 21h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 75¢ $77 22h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 75¢ $6 22h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 74¢ $7 22h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Power Rangers 83¢ $22 45h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Power Rangers 83¢ $39 45h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Power Rangers 83¢ $29 45h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Power Rangers 83¢ $151 45h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Power Rangers 83¢ $249 45h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Power Rangers 83¢ $151 45h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Power Rangers 83¢ $5 45h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Power Rangers 83¢ $339 45h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Power Rangers 83¢ $249 45h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Power Rangers 83¢ $151 45h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Power Rangers 83¢ $37 45h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Power Rangers 82¢ $70 45h
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Yandex 64¢ $1,617 7d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 68¢ $3 7d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 68¢ $21 7d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 68¢ $147 7d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 68¢ $78 7d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 68¢ $212 7d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 68¢ $15 7d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 67¢ $322 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.20 · official $159.20 (match) · 961 history records