Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C6 0xc647…7242 other 311 markets active 4d ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$327 (+22%) realized +$345 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%106W / 181L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$169
14 days+$169
30 days+$331
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$324
crypto 7% −$7
sports 3% +$3
culture 3% −$15
world 0% +$4
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +67.0% +51.1% 44% 44% +71.7%
≤30d 72 +74.0% +57.4% 42% 40% +42.7%
≤90d 183 +18.6% +7.3% 36% 34% +6.9%
all 287 +13.3% +2.5% 37% 35% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 35% +9.1%
10% -7.3% 34% -1.4%
15% -16.3% 33% -10.9%
20% -24.5% 29% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$345
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses106 / 181
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions24
Markets (closed)287 / 311
History coverage101d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 287 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $35 $27 −$8 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-33%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? Yes 34¢ 22¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-37%)
Will Martin Ødegaard record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 30¢ 20¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-36%)
World Cup Goal Contributions H2H: Vitinha vs. Pedri Vitinha 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2026 Action of the Year? Yes 3¢ 27¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+798%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 39¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 26¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 Action of the Year? Yes 3¢ 21¢ $0 $3 +$2 (+585%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-65%)
Will Arvid Lindblad win the 2026 Action of the Year? Yes 3¢ 27¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+810%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 Action of the Year? Yes 3¢ 10¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+218%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 Action of the Year? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+82%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 40¢ 8¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-81%)
Will Esteban Ocon win the 2026 Action of the Year? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+172%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 Action of the Year? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-58%)
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 Action of the Year? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 149 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$9 +291%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 +$6 +188%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +146%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$27 +874%
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalun Jun 14 $66 +$88 +133%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $13 +$12 +94%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $7 +$17 +230%
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $23 −$18 -78%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -37%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 +$25 +414%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $15 +$19 +123%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 13 $4 +$21 +525%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $1 +$2 +226%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 31 $5 +$6 +119%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mercedes achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr May 26 $1 +$1 +96%
Who will finish higher: Bortoleto or Hulkenberg? May 26 $5 +$4 +82%
Who will finish higher: Hamilton or Piastri? May 26 $4 +$6 +178%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 26 $6 +$9 +172%
Who will finish higher: Hamilton or Russell? May 26 $2 +$13 +669%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 26 $4 +$13 +380%
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Piastri? May 26 $4 +$16 +376%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 26 $4 +$22 +525%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 26 $14 +$38 +285%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Canadia May 24 $2 +$20 +872%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $7 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalun SELL Yes 100¢ $117 3d
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 99¢ $11 3d
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 99¢ $5 3d
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 99¢ $2 3d
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalun SELL Yes 98¢ $15 4d
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 99¢ $2 4d
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalun SELL Yes 88¢ $23 4d
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY Yes 70¢ $7 4d
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY Yes 38¢ $6 4d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 4d
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4d
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalun BUY Yes 85¢ $19 4d
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalun BUY Yes 26¢ $17 4d
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalun BUY Yes 45¢ $26 4d
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalun BUY Yes 27¢ $4 4d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 31¢ $3 4d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 48¢ $5 4d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 4d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 4d
Will Martin Ødegaard record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 4d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $3 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 26¢ $3 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 39¢ $3 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $3 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.49 · official $107.49 (match) · 980 history records