Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:36:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc647…82a0 world 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%28W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$7
politics 17% $0
other 15% $0
sports 13% −$12
economics 8% $0
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.2% -8.5% 56% 11% -9.2%
≤30d 32 +0.2% -9.4% 41% 6% -10.4%
≤90d 66 +0.5% -9.1% 42% 5% -9.9%
all 67 -1.0% -10.5% 42% 4% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 4% -10.4%
10% -19.0% 1% -19.0%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses28 / 39
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage486d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 73¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $26 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $24 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $52 +$2 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $98 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $22 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $45 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $70 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $17 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $23 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $23 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $17 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $23 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $22 +$1 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $24 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $9 −$2 -19%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $1 $0 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $24 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $13 +$3 +23%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $63 −$10 -17%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $38 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $67 $0 -1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $35 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $134 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $110 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $63 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $19 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $35 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $9 −$1 -10%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $32 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $3 $0 +6%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $98 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $26 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 3h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 22h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 23h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 23h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 23h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 23h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 23h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 23h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $2 25h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $1 25h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $4 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $24 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $24 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $23 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $19 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 87¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 87¢ $19 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $23 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $27 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.41 · official $0.00 · 290 history records