Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:44:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc64c…2718 other 167 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%11W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$18
sports 25% −$11
politics 25% −$6
crypto 7% −$5
economics 6% −$5
culture 4% −$8
world 4% −$1
finance 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 20 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 166 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses11 / 155
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)166 / 167
History coverage171d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $60 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $409 −$1 -0%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $58 −$1 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 27 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 15 $49 −$1 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $159 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 09 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 09 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $46 $0 -1%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 08 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $427 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 31 $203 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 31 $46 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $198 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $198 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 30 $60 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 30 $134 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 29 $137 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 29 $135 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 28 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $131 +$2 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 27 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 27 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 26 $139 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 26 $264 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $132 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $239 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 24 $135 $0 -0%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 23 $287 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $273 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $273 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $400 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 21 $128 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 20 $207 $0 +0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $138 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 20 $278 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $134 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 19 $291 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $60 2h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $55 12d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 12d
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $58 19d
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $58 19d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 97¢ $60 33d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $7 33d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $18 33d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $7 33d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $1 33d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $26 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL No 94¢ $47 44d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $49 44d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $60 80d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $60 80d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $53 80d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $53 80d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $52 80d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $52 81d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 81d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 81d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $41 81d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $41 81d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $56 81d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $56 81d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $46 81d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $46 82d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $56 82d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $56 82d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 95¢ $43 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.44 · official $59.44 (match) · 702 history records