Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:40:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc64d…67c1 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$2
other 14% +$2
politics 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.3% -9.3% 21% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 27 -3.7% -12.9% 22% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 27 -3.7% -12.9% 22% 0% -9.4%
all 39 -1.3% -10.7% 38% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 3% -9.1%
10% -19.3% 3% -17.8%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage459d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $35 +$1 +3%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $35 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $35 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $35 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $35 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $22 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $3 $0 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $11 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $24 −$3 -13%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $12 $0 +2%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $13 $0 +3%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ipswich Town be relegated? Apr 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 04 $1 $0 +31%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Apr 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $12 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $36 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $35 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $20 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $16 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $32 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $3 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $35 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $35 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $34 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 97¢ $35 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $33 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $8 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $23 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $35 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $14 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $14 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.58 · official $33.67 (match) · 104 history records