Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:32:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc64f…ad00 sports 666 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,968 (-7%) realized −$2,968 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%322W / 344L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$222est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days−$744
14 days−$230
30 days−$934
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$1,757
sports 41% −$1,349
world 2% −$52
crypto 1% −$258
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -10.5% -19.0% 45% 32% -24.6%
≤30d 261 -6.2% -15.1% 51% 45% -14.4%
≤90d 666 -10.7% -19.2% 48% 42% -16.9%
all 666 -10.7% -19.2% 48% 42% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 42% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 37% -24.8%
15% -34.0% 34% -32.1%
20% -40.4% 28% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$26 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,968
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses322 / 344
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$222
Open positions0
Markets (closed)666 / 666
History coverage52d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 666 Trades
no open positions (168 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $151 +$21 +14%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $402 +$14 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$17 -17%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $201 +$11 +6%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$7 -17%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 +$33 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $79 −$32 -40%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $160 −$11 -7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $74 +$14 +18%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $81 −$6 -7%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 17 $111 −$9 -8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$11 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 +$14 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$12 -41%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $20 −$8 -38%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$13 -25%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $80 −$36 -44%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $141 +$38 +27%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 −$2 -3%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $364 −$186 -51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$105 -52%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $253 +$35 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $203 −$92 -45%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $402 −$370 -92%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $41 −$33 -82%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$94 +46%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $20 −$16 -81%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$77 -76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$49 -48%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$27 +89%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$38 -75%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $30 +$15 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $502 +$106 +21%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $20 −$8 -40%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $121 −$16 -13%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $101 +$14 +14%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $30 +$16 +53%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $201 +$30 +15%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $10 +$7 +71%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $10 +$11 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 91¢ $172 14m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 23m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL No 92¢ $303 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 91¢ $301 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL No 83¢ $113 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $101 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $84 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $151 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $61 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 21h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $16 21h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 22h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 31¢ $34 22h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $47 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $47 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $79 30h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 40h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 40h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $60 40h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $21 40h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $88 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1407 history records