Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:26:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C6 0xc64f…6436 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 224d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$66 (+26%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate79%11W / 3L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$62
other 6% $0
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +47.7% +33.7% 89% 78% +21.8%
≤30d 9 +47.7% +33.7% 89% 78% +21.8%
≤90d 10 +43.3% +29.6% 90% 70% +20.4%
all 14 +23.7% +11.9% 79% 50% +12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.9% 50% +12.9%
10% +1.2% 50% +2.1%
15% -8.6% 36% -7.7%
20% -17.5% 21% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.49 per $1 lost it wins $5.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses11 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage224d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $77 −$3 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $49 +$29 +59%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $21 +$28 +134%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $17 +$4 +23%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $14 +$3 +24%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $14 $0 +2%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $6 +$7 +109%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$2 +47%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 18 $11 $0 +3%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 19 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? Mar 03 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 02 $10 +$1 +8%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jan 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 59¢ $74 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $77 6h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Manel Kape 100¢ $78 11h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 62¢ $49 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $21 21h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $21 21h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 81¢ $17 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $17 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 79¢ $14 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $14 23h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 98¢ $14 23h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 47¢ $6 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 73¢ $5 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 88¢ $5 5d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 59¢ $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $11 34d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 90¢ $11 94d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 94¢ $10 110d
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? SELL No 16¢ $4 110d
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? BUY No 19¢ $5 110d
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? SELL Yes 95¢ $11 111d
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 111d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 41¢ $2 224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 41¢ $2 224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 61¢ $2 224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 63¢ $2 224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 66¢ $2 224d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records