Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc651…e47c world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$1
other 18% $0
politics 14% $0
sports 9% $0
tech 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -10.0%
all 38 +0.3% -9.2% 24% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage256d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $65 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $66 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $66 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $66 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $58 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 30 $39 −$2 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $67 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $67 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 31 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Dec 30 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $500 before 2026? Oct 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 19 $1 $0 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Oct 18 $1 $0 -8%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 18 $4 $0 +6%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Oct 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 11 $47 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 10 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $65 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $1 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $16 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $48 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $65 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $66 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $66 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $3 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $31 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $31 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $66 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $38 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $36 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $2 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $58 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $48 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $11 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $39 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $39 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $28 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $4 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.