Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:33:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc653…05a9 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-34%) realized −$39 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$36
other 29% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -32.9% -39.3% 20% 20% -62.5%
≤30d 5 -32.9% -39.3% 20% 20% -62.5%
≤90d 5 -32.9% -39.3% 20% 20% -62.5%
all 5 -32.9% -39.3% 20% 20% -62.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.3% 20% -62.5%
10% -45.1% 20% -66.1%
15% -50.4% 20% -69.3%
20% -55.3% 20% -72.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$20 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $33 −$23 -70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $11 +$22 +206%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $40 −$40 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 54m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 54m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $33 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 100¢ $33 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 32¢ $11 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 24¢ $10 7h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $40 27h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $9 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.83 · official $10.83 (match) · 8 history records