Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:55:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc654…55a8 crypto 1134 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$163 (-5%) realized −$162 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%460W / 664L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day38.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$39
14 days−$51
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$112
other 36% −$97
tech 12% −$39
finance 6% $0
sports 5% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -4.3% -13.4% 47% 34% -15.2%
≤30d 216 -6.4% -15.3% 38% 27% -15.9%
≤90d 1124 -10.2% -18.7% 41% 32% -17.2%
all 1124 -10.2% -18.7% 41% 32% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 32% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 23% -25.1%
15% -33.6% 17% -32.4%
20% -40.1% 11% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$162
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses460 / 664
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1124 / 1134
History coverage68d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day38.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $284 Week of June 15 2026? No 70¢ 88¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+25%)
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? Up 80¢ 98¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? Up 78¢ 81¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 15 2026? No 75¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Yes 33¢ 42¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 49¢ 45¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? Yes 43¢ 30¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $107.50 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 34¢ 29¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 35¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $330 in June? Yes 47¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 in June? Jun 15 $18 −$4 -22%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $120 in June? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -38%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$2 -31%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $375 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $135 Week of June 15 Jun 15 $4 −$1 -31%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$4 -72%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +13%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 in June? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$3 +76%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $97.50 Week of June 8 2 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +127%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +35%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +47%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +45%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +17%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -39%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 in June? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -37%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -90%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $136 in June? Jun 12 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -50%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $122 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -16%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $550 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -84%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$3 +21%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +37%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $14 +$3 +20%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$8 -68%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? Jun 11 $12 $0 -1%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$3 +17%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in June? Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 11? Jun 11 $24 −$2 -7%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $126 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +48%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$3 -24%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $12 $0 -2%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $284 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -35%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $350 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 -4%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 in June? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $120 in June? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -10%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -23%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +42%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$5 -75%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in June? Jun 11 $4 $0 -8%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 11 $6 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 1h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $107.50 Week of June 15 BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 15 20 BUY Yes 49¢ $3 1h
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $120 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 15? SELL No 55¢ $4 1h
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $375 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 36¢ $2 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 3h
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $135 Week of June 15 SELL No 35¢ $3 3h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $375 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 36¢ $2 3h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 14¢ $2 3h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $284 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 70¢ $6 3h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 76¢ $6 3h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 78¢ $6 3h
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL Yes 63¢ $5 3h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 80¢ $6 3h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 3h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 3h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 47¢ $6 4h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $6 5h
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 5h
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $135 Week of June 15 BUY No 48¢ $4 5h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 71¢ $6 5h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 5h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 in June? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 5h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 2d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.58 · official $35.58 (match) · 3041 history records