Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:08:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C6 0xc656…7e06 politics 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$17
politics 44% −$20
sports 4% +$12
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 125 -2.7% -11.9% 6% 4% -9.7%
all 138 -1.0% -10.4% 9% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 7% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 4% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×8.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)138 / 138
History coverage114d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 138 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $245 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $226 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $222 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $228 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $268 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $201 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $195 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $224 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $254 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $215 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 20 $257 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $271 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $268 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $260 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $239 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 12 $273 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $294 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,085 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $223 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $292 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $208 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $244 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $241 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $276 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $210 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $207 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $678 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $274 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $294 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $229 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $288 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $217 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 6h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 6h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 9h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 9d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 9d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 10d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 11d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 14d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $226 20d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $226 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $222 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $222 23d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $205 23d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $205 23d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 23d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 24d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $268 24d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $268 24d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $231 24d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $231 25d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $201 25d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $201 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 367 history records