Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C6
0xc658…b784
world · 125 markets active 9h ago
0.0score
+$344,931 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$332,967 · open −$26,537
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,074,293
Realized+$332,967
Unrealized−$26,537
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses64 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$363
Open positions19
Markets (closed)119 / 125
Avg bet$93,720
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 19 History 119 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76,977
7 days−$76,977
14 days−$509,066
30 days−$546,678
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $226,938 $260,837 +$33,899 (+15%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 74¢ 88¢ $211,591 $249,524 +$37,933 (+18%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $234,807 $241,143 +$6,336 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 45¢ 22¢ $209,637 $100,376 −$109,261 (-52%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $67,081 $71,398 +$4,317 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 73¢ 82¢ $37,935 $42,906 +$4,971 (+13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $46,808 $39,256 −$7,552 (-16%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 83¢ 80¢ $22,469 $21,727 −$743 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $14,479 $15,995 +$1,516 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $11,164 $11,856 +$692 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 76¢ $6,076 $6,199 +$123 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 56¢ 66¢ $2,474 $2,940 +$466 (+19%)
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? No 75¢ 99¢ $1,936 $2,535 +$599 (+31%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 58¢ $2,228 $2,404 +$176 (+8%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $2,480 $2,226 −$254 (-10%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 72¢ 82¢ $1,566 $1,794 +$228 (+15%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $1,056 $1,097 +$41 (+4%)
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 65¢ 49¢ $106 $79 −$27 (-25%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? No 42¢ 0¢ $4,200 $0 −$4,200 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $656 $0 −$656 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $167 $0 −$167 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $516 $0 −$516 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $121 $0 −$121 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? Jun 12 $4,200 −$4,200 -100%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 12 $656 −$656 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bill Belichick engaged in 2025? Jun 12 $157 −$157 -100%
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? Jun 12 $369 −$369 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Jun 12 $1,801 −$1,801 -100%
Weed rescheduled in 2025? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 12 $4,332 −$4,332 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Jun 12 $56,088 −$56,088 -100%
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30? Jun 12 $8,786 −$8,786 -100%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
US national XRP reserve in 2025? Jun 12 $537 −$537 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $37,715 −$37,713 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $3,180 +$701 +22%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $10,341 +$2,576 +25%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $46,974 +$2,998 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $603,208 −$400,081 -66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $571 −$571 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 28 $6,922 −$790 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 27 $3,607 −$3,607 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $27,600 +$9,686 +35%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $51,951 +$28,280 +54%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 25 $11,384 +$857 +8%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 25 $9,542 +$283 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $29,007 −$17,296 -60%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $62,840 −$53,235 -85%
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? May 22 $5,471 +$457 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $2,674 −$1,112 -42%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $615 −$615 -100%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 19 $5,093 −$390 -8%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $403 −$403 -100%
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $2,004 +$273 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $9,819 −$1,545 -16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 10 $9,745 −$9,745 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $656 −$656 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $2,465 −$2,465 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 10 $302 −$302 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? May 09 $5,861 +$4,345 +74%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $43,983 +$139,768 +318%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $18,564 +$48,302 +260%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $28,634 +$29,729 +104%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 08 $286 −$286 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 07 $259 +$187 +72%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $567 −$27 -5%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 05 $277 +$177 +64%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? May 05 $3,301 −$99 -3%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 05 $199,220 +$800 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 05 $600,373 +$93,577 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 05 $41,134 +$6,009 +15%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Apr 30 $7,755 +$11,196 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 54% +$61,440
economics 26% +$165,440
other 13% +$68,724
politics 7% +$78,902
sports 0% +$9,515
finance 0% −$615
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,984 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $5,680 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,275 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $238 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $1,452 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $399 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,444 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $2,562 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $659 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,182 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $3,085 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $2,127 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $2,350 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $903 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $5,297 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $4,942 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $1,883 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1,604 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $30,000 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $2,463 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,151 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,024 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,935 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $2,192 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $4,096 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $735 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $4,085 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,439 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2,301 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 42¢ $695 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 32 -60.7% -64.5% 28% 16% -72.3%
≤90d 85 +3.1% -6.7% 45% 31% -9.6%
all 119 +1.8% -7.9% 54% 30% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 30% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 18% -14.9%
15% -24.8% 14% -23.1%
20% -32.1% 13% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,074,293.17 · official $1,074,293.17 (match) · 3500 history records