trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -22.2% | -29.6% | 0% | 0% | -29.6% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -22.2% | -29.6% | 0% | 0% | -29.6% |
| ≤90d | 1 | -22.2% | -29.6% | 0% | 0% | -29.6% |
| all | 19 | -9.7% | -18.3% | 68% | 42% | -21.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.3% | 42% | -21.5% |
| 10% | -26.1% | 21% | -29.0% |
| 15% | -33.3% | 5% | -35.9% |
| 20% | -39.8% | 5% | -42.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $75 | $73 | −$2 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele | Jun 29 | $99 | −$22 | -22% |
| Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k? | Dec 30 | $99 | −$99 | -100% |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | Dec 21 | $99 | −$99 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Dec 03 | $30 | +$6 | +21% |
| Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election | Dec 01 | $26 | +$15 | +59% |
| Will the Liberal Reform Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parl | Nov 25 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? | Nov 25 | $39 | +$11 | +30% |
| Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? | Nov 25 | $31 | −$31 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November? | Nov 21 | $30 | +$9 | +30% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Oct 17 | $113 | +$10 | +9% |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Oct 17 | $41 | −$7 | -17% |
| Trump sentenced to between 0 and 11 months prison time? | Sep 06 | $91 | +$4 | +4% |
| Maduro out before September? | Aug 24 | $29 | +$6 | +19% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 before September? | Aug 23 | $108 | +$28 | +26% |
| Bitcoin above $65,000 on August 9? | Aug 09 | $105 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will Trump and Harris debate before election? | Aug 08 | $78 | +$13 | +17% |
| Will a Democrat win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Aug 06 | $86 | +$8 | +9% |
| Will Biden finish his term? | Aug 06 | $40 | +$8 | +21% |
| Fed rate cut by July 31? | Aug 01 | $28 | +$2 | +7% |