Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:28:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc662…0f28 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$29 (-4%) realized −$27 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$528now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$43
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$41
crypto 3% +$11
sports 1% +$3
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -47.8% -52.7% 30% 30% -43.8%
≤30d 12 -28.0% -34.9% 42% 42% -29.0%
≤90d 12 -28.0% -34.9% 42% 42% -29.0%
all 12 -28.0% -34.9% 42% 42% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 42% -29.0%
10% -41.1% 42% -35.8%
15% -46.8% 42% -42.0%
20% -52.0% 25% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$528
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage9d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$11 +59%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $30 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 22h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $308 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $8 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $527.94 · official $527.94 (match) · 30 history records