Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc662…0927 crypto 872 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,110 (-5%) realized −$1,984 · open −$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate48%391W / 430L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day38.8pace
Fees−$273est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$233
7 days−$763
14 days−$1,113
30 days−$1,587
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 24% −$380
sports 21% −$213
other 19% −$537
politics 16% −$364
weather 6% −$226
crypto 6% −$73
economics 3% −$192
finance 3% −$46
tech 2% −$111
culture 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 309 -10.1% -18.7% 13% 5% -16.0%
≤30d 672 -5.5% -14.5% 43% 19% -14.2%
≤90d 821 -4.9% -14.0% 48% 17% -13.6%
all 821 -4.9% -14.0% 48% 17% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 17% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 8% -21.9%
15% -29.7% 3% -29.5%
20% -36.6% 1% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized−$1,984
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses391 / 430
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$273
Open positions51
Markets (closed)821 / 872
History coverage59d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 821 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 51¢ 38¢ $31 $23 −$8 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? No 57¢ 58¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 21? No 37¢ 38¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? Yes 41¢ 20¢ $24 $12 −$12 (-51%)
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match? No 56¢ 39¢ $16 $11 −$5 (-30%)
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? No 36¢ 36¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? No 14¢ 10¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 10% or more? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $13 $8 −$5 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 20? No 70¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+43%)
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? No 21¢ 10¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 21? No 51¢ 54¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $9B in 2026? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $13 $4 −$9 (-67%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? No 77¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+14%)
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? No 16¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? No 68¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? No 60¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? Yes 38¢ 30¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 22? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 7¢ 4¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-43%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? No 48¢ 86¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+78%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+299%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-78%)
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 61¢ 41¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 $0 -1%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 21 $19 +$8 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 21 $88 −$8 -9%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $118 −$5 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 20 $18 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 22? Jun 20 $4 $0 -11%
Will a player from the United States of America win the 2026 U.S. Open Jun 20 $6 −$4 -72%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 22? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 20 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21? Jun 20 $35 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? Jun 20 $11 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 22? Jun 20 $3 $0 -7%
Will Keegan Bradley finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $9 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 20 $18 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? Jun 20 $10 −$3 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? Jun 20 $9 $0 -4%
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? Jun 20 $16 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22? Jun 20 $2 $0 -6%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $526 −$5 -1%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $59 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21? Jun 20 $4 $0 -7%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 20 $62 −$8 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Jun 20 $8 −$1 -19%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 20 $201 −$7 -3%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 20 $18 −$1 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 22? Jun 20 $4 $0 -2%
Will South Korea be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Gro Jun 20 $87 −$21 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? Jun 20 $36 −$7 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? Jun 20 $15 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 22? Jun 20 $30 −$5 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? Jun 20 $26 −$4 -14%
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 20 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 20 $22 −$5 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? Jun 20 $21 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 21? Jun 20 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? Jun 20 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 20 $18 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? Jun 20 $20 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? Jun 20 $0 $0 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Jun 20 $19 $0 +1%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 20 $65 −$6 -9%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? Jun 20 $3 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 21? Jun 20 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 20 $46 −$5 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 21? Jun 20 $8 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 20 $7 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial electio BUY No 36¢ $9 29m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 21? SELL Yes 45¢ $6 46m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 48m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL No 27¢ $27 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 19¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 57¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 57¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 22? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL No 42¢ $29 1h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 62¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 37¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 37¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? BUY Yes 41¢ $22 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? SELL No 65¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 22? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 2h
Will a player from the United States of America win the 2026 U.S. Open SELL No 7¢ $2 2h
Will a player from the United States of America win the 2026 U.S. Open BUY No 23¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 3h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $58 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 41¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? SELL No 64¢ $4 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $20 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $8 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $8 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 22? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.11 · official $169.82 · 2894 history records