Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc666…aff7 crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$370 (-5%) realized −$368 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate52%26W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$385
other 3% +$1
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -21.4% -28.9% 52% 22% -14.9%
≤30d 50 -21.4% -28.9% 52% 22% -14.9%
≤90d 50 -21.4% -28.9% 52% 22% -14.9%
all 50 -21.4% -28.9% 52% 22% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 22% -14.9%
10% -35.7% 12% -23.1%
15% -41.9% 2% -30.5%
20% -47.6% 0% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$36 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized−$368
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses26 / 24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage16d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $94 $91 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $168 +$47 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $176 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $160 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $146 −$8 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $112 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $181 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $168 +$20 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $163 −$16 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $181 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $144 +$48 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $126 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $125 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $122 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $105 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $121 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $97 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $328 −$306 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $331 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $281 +$19 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $307 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $143 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $313 −$23 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $306 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$14 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $54 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$14 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $223 −$223 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $163 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $329 +$60 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $279 +$68 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $80 +$39 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $205 +$40 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $153 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $150 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.95 · official $291.97 (match) · 245 history records