Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

C6 0xc668…e830 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 694d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,583 (-34%) realized −$1,575 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip

Net edge-40%after slip

Net WR15%break-even

Win rate15%2W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$277per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit53%portable

Net worth$794now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +15%

net ROI/market (all)-40.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	13	-33.8%	-40.1%	15%	15%	-46.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-40.1%	15%	-46.2%
10%	-45.8%	15%	-51.3%
15%	-51.1%	15%	-56.0%
20%	-55.8%	8%	-60.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -34% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +12% → late -73% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$223 vs −$184 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.22 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

694d coverage

Net worth$794

Realized−$1,575

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)15%

Wins / losses2 / 11

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions4

Markets (closed)13 / 17

History coverage694d

Avg bet$277

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$400	$397	−$3 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	78¢	78¢	$200	$199	−$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$126	$123	−$3 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	81¢	80¢	$76	$76	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-10-05?	Oct 05	$224	−$224	-100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-21?	Sep 27	$300	−$25	-8%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27?	Sep 27	$500	−$451	-90%
Will Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool end in a draw?	Sep 27	$127	−$127	-100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-04?	Sep 27	$600	−$62	-10%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-27?	Sep 22	$35	−$35	-100%
Will Manchester City vs. Burnley FC end in a draw?	Sep 22	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Arsenal vs. Manchester City end in a draw?	Sep 21	$150	+$407	+272%
Ethereum all time high in 2024?	Sep 21	$102	+$38	+38%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Aug 05	$500	−$59	-12%
Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?	Aug 05	$105	−$72	-69%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2024 meeting?	Aug 03	$510	−$510	-100%
Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve?	Jul 28	$700	−$413	-59%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$98	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$31	1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	78¢	$201	2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	81¢	$76	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$202	2h
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-10-05?	BUY Yes	34¢	$224	258d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27?	SELL Yes	5¢	$50	266d
Will Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$60	266d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27?	BUY Yes	52¢	$40	266d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-04?	SELL Yes	43¢	$49	266d
Will Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$5	266d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-04?	SELL Yes	43¢	$25	266d
Will Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$10	266d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-04?	SELL Yes	43¢	$15	266d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-04?	SELL Yes	43¢	$40	266d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-04?	SELL Yes	43¢	$10	266d
Will Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$2	266d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-04?	SELL Yes	43¢	$10	266d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-04?	SELL Yes	43¢	$5	266d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-04?	SELL Yes	43¢	$1	266d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-04?	SELL Yes	43¢	$4	266d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-04?	SELL Yes	43¢	$11	267d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-04?	SELL Yes	43¢	$20	267d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-04?	SELL Yes	43¢	$25	267d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-04?	SELL Yes	43¢	$15	267d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-04?	SELL Yes	43¢	$20	267d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-04?	SELL Yes	43¢	$30	267d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-04?	SELL Yes	43¢	$5	267d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $794.38 · official $794.38 (match) · 112 history records