Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:16:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C6 0xc671…b0c7 sports 1110 markets active 0h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 182d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,346 (-2%) realized −$2,356 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%551W / 523L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$1,807est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$406
14 days−$20,764
30 days−$20,737
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$2,506
other 6% −$1,003
culture 0% −$31
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +122.0% +100.9% 55% 55% +42.7%
≤30d 179 -18.3% -26.1% 23% 23% -90.0%
≤90d 1058 -0.2% -9.7% 51% 49% -12.3%
all 1074 +0.9% -8.7% 51% 50% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 50% -12.0%
10% -17.4% 48% -20.5%
15% -25.4% 43% -28.1%
20% -32.7% 36% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$115 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$2,356
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses551 / 523
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$1,807
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1074 / 1110
History coverage182d ⚠
Avg bet$115
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1074 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 70¢ 92¢ $31 $41 +$10 (+32%)
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Karmine Corp 48¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Jun 28 $15 +$17 +111%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain w Jun 27 $5 +$23 +469%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$16 +161%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Fran Jun 27 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 27 $20 +$38 +188%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $46 −$25 -54%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $5 +$4 +86%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 $0 -7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 $0 -5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in Jun 26 $15 +$112 +746%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Austra Jun 26 $3 +$42 +1270%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 25 $76 −$48 -62%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-21? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $19 +$36 +192%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: F Jun 23 $4 +$49 +1204%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: F Jun 23 $10 +$85 +817%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 +$26 +97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $9 +$32 +365%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$8 +154%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$7 +73%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$7 +65%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$9 +172%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $65 +$65 +100%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 21 $18 +$15 +82%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $14 +$18 +123%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$20 +132%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $18 +$28 +152%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $38 +$17 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $38 +$68 +180%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$21 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Karmine Corp 48¢ $15 2m
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 70¢ $31 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND SELL 99¢ $32 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Gha BUY 33¢ $11 12h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Po BUY 18¢ $9 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 13h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Croatia w BUY 12¢ $5 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY 46¢ $15 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 23¢ $25 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 76¢ $25 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 30h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) SELL Senegal 100¢ $9 32h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 53¢ $5 33h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1 BUY 10¢ $5 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 34¢ $20 35h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Fran BUY 26¢ $10 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 30¢ $5 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 31¢ $5 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 35h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY 38¢ $10 35h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on BUY 19¢ $5 35h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain w BUY 17¢ $5 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Austra BUY $3 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in BUY 12¢ $15 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 25¢ $51 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will BUY 21¢ $19 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Wil BUY 28¢ $7 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will BUY 24¢ $5 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND BUY 11¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.72 · official $55.72 (match) · 3500 history records