Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:21:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C6 0xc674…9eb5 crypto 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%64W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day37.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 +7.6% -2.6% 46% 46% -8.3%
≤30d 139 +7.6% -2.6% 46% 46% -8.3%
≤90d 139 +7.6% -2.6% 46% 46% -8.3%
all 139 +7.6% -2.6% 46% 46% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.6% 46% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.9% 45% -17.1%
15% -20.4% 45% -25.1%
20% -28.2% 45% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses64 / 75
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day37.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions (68 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$14 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$16 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 302 history records