Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:11:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C6 0xc678…6f57 other 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 1199d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+0%) realized +$29 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate62%88W / 53L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$20
14 days−$196
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$144
sports 7% −$176
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -21.7% -29.1% 63% 26% -8.7%
≤30d 62 -15.0% -23.1% 65% 18% -10.6%
≤90d 130 -11.8% -20.2% 67% 15% -9.2%
all 141 -14.4% -22.5% 62% 14% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 14% -9.7%
10% -29.9% 7% -18.3%
15% -36.7% 3% -26.2%
20% -42.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1199d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses88 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage1199d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 80¢ 83¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $400 +$12 +3%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 +$4 +37%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 25 $222 +$8 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$18 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $501 +$12 +2%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $101 +$10 +10%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 3 Winner Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $200 +$12 +6%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $200 +$8 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $60 +$7 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $10 +$2 +22%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $23 +$2 +8%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $81 +$6 +7%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $57 −$21 -37%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $55 −$8 -15%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 −$1 -24%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: CarritoSpain vs The Last Resort (BO3) - Exort Series M Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$4 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$10 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $58 +$6 +10%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $500 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $76 +$18 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $361 −$16 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $495 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1,010 +$8 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $564 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $545 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $275 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$2 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $600 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 99¢ $413 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 96¢ $400 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $101 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 71¢ $7 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 75¢ $3 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 74¢ $4 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 35¢ $6 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 57¢ $20 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $20 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $10 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL 9INE 55¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Inner Circle Esports 54¢ $0 11h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY 9INE 53¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Inner Circle Esports 50¢ $9 11h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Inner Circle Esports 51¢ $10 11h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Inner Circle Esports 65¢ $11 11h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Inner Circle Esports 57¢ $10 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 76¢ $44 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 77¢ $38 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 77¢ $82 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 77¢ $25 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 78¢ $42 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 73¢ $202 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 68¢ $20 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 93¢ $119 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 29h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $70 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.32 · official $103.19 (match) · 610 history records