Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C6 0xc67b…b3d8 sports 400 markets active 1d ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$685 (-1%) realized −$685 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%220W / 180L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$994est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$137
14 days−$146
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,549
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -25.5% -32.6% 55% 55% -37.8%
≤30d 83 +5.8% -4.3% 59% 58% -15.5%
≤90d 400 +1.3% -8.4% 55% 53% -11.7%
all 400 +1.3% -8.4% 55% 53% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 53% -11.7%
10% -17.1% 48% -20.1%
15% -25.1% 38% -27.8%
20% -32.5% 29% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +22% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$139 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$685
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses220 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$994
Open positions0
Markets (closed)400 / 400
History coverage74d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 400 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $36 −$35 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $7 −$6 -97%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $17 +$3 +20%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $25 +$4 +18%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $21 +$2 +11%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $9 +$2 +28%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $18 +$7 +40%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $13 +$4 +32%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $16 +$4 +26%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $15 +$8 +52%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $22 +$3 +16%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $24 +$3 +13%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $13 −$13 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $12 −$11 -98%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $42 +$22 +52%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $20 −$4 -19%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $44 −$2 -4%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $36 −$35 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $34 −$34 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $36 +$10 +29%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 06 $17 −$17 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $9 +$4 +46%
LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs Jun 06 $39 +$3 +8%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $10 +$14 +140%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 04 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 03 $70 +$18 +26%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $28 −$28 -98%
LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs Jun 02 $10 +$24 +249%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $12 +$12 +97%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $27 +$53 +197%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 02 $9 +$10 +109%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 01 $11 +$24 +225%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $9 −$9 -99%
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5) May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $9 +$3 +29%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $17 +$22 +134%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 30 $30 +$6 +20%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 30 $40 +$12 +30%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs May 29 $28 −$28 -99%
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs May 29 $9 +$6 +70%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 29 $12 +$3 +27%
LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 28 $40 +$13 +32%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 27 $11 +$10 +97%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 26 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 26 $59 −$59 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $36 35h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 72¢ $101 2d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 32¢ $3 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 10¢ $7 3d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY G2 NORD 89¢ $21 4d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Eintracht Spandau 84¢ $25 4d
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group BUY Misa Esports 78¢ $9 4d
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Karmine Corp Blue 83¢ $17 4d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame SELL RED Canids 100¢ $24 4d
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY Partizan Sangal 77¢ $13 5d
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Solary 86¢ $22 5d
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY Misa Esports 83¢ $19 5d
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 75¢ $13 5d
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Karmine Corp Blue 88¢ $24 5d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Team Heretics Academy 79¢ $16 5d
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY BOMBA Team 35¢ $12 5d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY Galions 65¢ $15 5d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame BUY RED Canids 71¢ $18 5d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Forsaken 65¢ $42 6d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY Fluxo W7M 47¢ $9 6d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C SELL Saigon Dino 29¢ $16 6d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Dino 35¢ $20 6d
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage BUY Verdant 51¢ $28 7d
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage SELL Verdant 50¢ $15 7d
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage BUY Verdant 51¢ $15 7d
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In BUY Frites Esports Club 53¢ $36 7d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 54¢ $34 9d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America BUY paiN Gaming 37¢ $17 10d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 49¢ $26 10d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 77¢ $36 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 865 history records