Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C6 0xc67b…d35e sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$380 (+30%) realized +$411 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$293
7 days+$201
14 days+$370
30 days+$370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$30
other 35% +$292
crypto 2% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +23.5% +11.7% 67% 67% +16.5%
≤30d 8 +29.7% +17.3% 75% 75% +21.5%
≤90d 8 +29.7% +17.3% 75% 75% +21.5%
all 8 +29.7% +17.3% 75% 75% +21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.3% 75% +21.5%
10% +6.1% 75% +9.9%
15% -4.1% 75% -0.8%
20% -13.5% 62% -10.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$115 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$411
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage12d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 46¢ 28¢ $114 $68 −$46 (-40%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Yes 46¢ 60¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Jun 28 $167 +$265 +159%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $42 +$27 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$17 +65%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $116 −$115 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $117 −$115 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $232 +$121 +52%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Ram/Salisbury vs Arevalo/Pavic Jun 17 $281 +$112 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$58 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 20m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 46¢ $116 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 97¢ $69 47h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 58¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 2d
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY Yes 38¢ $167 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $116 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 42¢ $117 5d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 65¢ $232 5d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Ram/Salisbury vs Arevalo/Pavic BUY Arevalo/Pavic 71¢ $281 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.37 · official $133.37 (match) · 16 history records