Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:22:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc67b…c149 sports 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,660 (-4%) realized −$2,638 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%88W / 83L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$356per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$353now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days+$1,370
14 days+$1,370
30 days+$1,370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$1,102
other 42% −$734
politics 3% −$586
crypto 2% +$480
world 2% −$940
weather 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +9.7% -0.7% 54% 54% +5.3%
≤30d 24 +9.7% -0.7% 54% 54% +5.3%
≤90d 24 +9.7% -0.7% 54% 54% +5.3%
all 171 -8.8% -17.5% 51% 46% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 46% -13.8%
10% -25.4% 43% -22.0%
15% -32.6% 39% -29.5%
20% -39.2% 30% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +36% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$266 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$353
Realized−$2,638
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses88 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions2
Markets (closed)171 / 174
History coverage529d
Avg bet$356
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Under 59¢ 57¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $175 $160 −$15 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $203 −$113 -55%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $154 −$154 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $305 −$305 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $213 +$145 +68%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $907 +$433 +48%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $176 −$173 -99%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $102 +$230 +225%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $608 +$352 +58%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $769 −$757 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $153 +$195 +128%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,247 +$805 +64%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $304 +$221 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $475 +$500 +105%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $203 +$140 +69%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $303 +$173 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $512 −$4 -1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $82 −$80 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $486 +$708 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $291 +$196 +67%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $564 −$556 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $156 −$156 -100%
Will France win? Mar 07 $589 −$589 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $230 −$230 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) Jan 15 $319 −$319 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO1) Jan 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-12-21? Jan 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2025-12-28? Jan 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Latvia vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jan 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Wizards Jan 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Adelaide International: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Valentin Vacher Jan 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bucks vs. Timberwolves Jan 15 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner Jan 15 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Germany win on 2025-09-04? Jan 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Egypt vs. Zimbabwe end in a draw? Jan 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Nigeria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jan 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Jan 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Uganda win on 2025-12-27? Jan 15 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Mali win on 2025-12-22? Jan 15 $400 −$90 -22%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE (BO3) Jan 15 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) Jan 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Mavericks vs. Warriors Jan 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2025-12-27? Jan 15 $210 −$210 -100%
Orioles vs. Padres Jan 15 $250 −$250 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $92 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $87 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 20¢ $91 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $202 4h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $102 4h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $102 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $154 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score AND Will Belgium win on 2026- BUY 46¢ $175 9h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $305 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 94¢ $358 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $213 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $907 28h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $176 31h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $509 32h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $102 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $960 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $608 33h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $102 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $173 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $295 2d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 77¢ $348 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 93¢ $525 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $302 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $304 2d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 33¢ $153 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,052 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,247 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $193 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $282 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 96¢ $343 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $353.03 · official $353.06 (match) · 490 history records