Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C6 0xc67c…9ad5 other 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 625d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,238 (-1%) realized −$2,233 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%69W / 189L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$769per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$2,337
14 days−$8,494
30 days−$8,504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% +$1,329
other 4% −$3,304
politics 1% −$12
sports 0% −$62
crypto 0% −$122
economics 0% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +51.2% +36.8% 41% 38% -5.9%
≤30d 87 -37.5% -43.5% 17% 16% -20.5%
≤90d 94 -29.4% -36.1% 21% 18% -10.6%
all 258 -20.1% -27.7% 27% 25% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 25% -10.6%
10% -34.6% 23% -19.1%
15% -41.0% 21% -26.9%
20% -46.7% 19% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -32% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$202 vs −$86 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

625d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized−$2,233
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses69 / 189
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)258 / 260
History coverage625d
Avg bet$769
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $401 −$8 -2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$40 +197%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$22 +109%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $582 −$580 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$11 -56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $622 +$75 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $191 +$253 +133%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $7 +$30 +413%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals Jun 17 $7 +$43 +596%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$58 +72%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$73 +711%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 +$37 +510%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$30 +291%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -67%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -33%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 +$18 +354%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $2,525 −$2,500 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 17 $53,957 +$4,960 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $24 −$23 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Atletico Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AJ Auxerre end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26, 10-11am? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-10? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bungee win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 17? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26, 5-6am? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-09-27? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 10¢ $88 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 90¢ $393 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 91¢ $201 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 92¢ $201 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 35¢ $43 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 5¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $20 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $381 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $31 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $41 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $140 6d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $37 6d
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $50 6d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $153 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $139 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $83 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $80 6d
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $7 6d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $7 6d
Declan Rice: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $4 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.92 · official $294.92 (match) · 591 history records