Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:55:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C6 0xc67c…ccfd other 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 89L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$14
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$33
politics 21% −$8
sports 8% +$26
economics 7% −$2
culture 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +56.9% +41.9% 50% 50% +7.7%
≤30d 12 +9.4% -1.0% 17% 8% -8.8%
≤90d 101 -2.8% -12.1% 12% 7% -9.6%
all 101 -2.8% -12.1% 12% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 7% -9.6%
10% -20.5% 7% -18.2%
15% -28.2% 7% -26.1%
20% -35.2% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)101 / 104
History coverage86d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $104 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $87 $87 +$0 (+0%)
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $13 +$15 +114%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $95 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $82 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $110 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $295 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $303 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 16 $588 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $303 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $299 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 10 $297 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $903 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,129 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 05 $282 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $904 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $288 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $310 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $537 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $300 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $285 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $291 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $309 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $309 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $284 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $298 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $290 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $285 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $302 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $289 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,063 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 25h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $87 26h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 28h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 46¢ $13 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $104 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $49 10d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $49 11d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $54 13d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 13d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 16d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 16d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 17d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 17d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 18d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 18d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 18d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 18d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 20d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 20d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $67 26d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $67 26d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $110 26d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $42 26d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $42 27d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $286 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.25 · official $231.25 (match) · 298 history records