Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:14:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc683…47bc crypto 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 543d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%60W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$1
weather 17% $0
world 14% +$1
other 9% −$6
politics 7% −$6
finance 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 30 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 62 -2.9% -12.1% 97% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -10.1%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses60 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage543d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 28? Jun 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on May 27? Jun 27 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 25? May 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 17? May 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 16? May 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 16? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 8? May 15 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 8? May 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 2 May 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? May 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 29? May 07 $17 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 2? May 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 26? Apr 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on April 26 Apr 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on April 26? Apr 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on April 27? Apr 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $22 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 22? Apr 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 13°C on April 21? Apr 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on April 18? Apr 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 1 Apr 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 18? Apr 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 15? Apr 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or higher on April 1 Apr 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 on April 8? Apr 11 $75 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,000 in March? Apr 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 08 $98 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March? Apr 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 19? Mar 24 $51 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 9-15? Mar 18 $47 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 18 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Mar 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 07 $80 $0 +0%
Will Trump rename Greenland 'Red, White, and Blueland' before July? Aug 20 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine lowers conscription age before May 9? May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Trump pauses reciprocal tariffs on EU before Wednesday? Apr 26 $6 $0 +0%
Trump orders U.S. prisoners to El Salvador before April? Apr 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek be #1 model before April? Apr 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April? Apr 07 $6 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 16? Mar 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine take responsibility for X attack by Friday? Mar 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before March? Mar 09 $1 $0 +1%
Trump negative approval before March? Mar 09 $14 $0 +0%
AfD banned before German election? Mar 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 21? Mar 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17? Feb 20 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $28 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $29 34d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $56 34d
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $29 43d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 43d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $31 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $32 43d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $60 51d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $54 51d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 2? BUY No 100¢ $24 59d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 29? BUY No 99¢ $17 59d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 2 BUY No 100¢ $34 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 62d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on April 26 BUY No 100¢ $14 62d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on April 26? BUY No 100¢ $18 62d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on April 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 62d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 13°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $28 68d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $24 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $22 68d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $21 70d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $12 70d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 1 BUY No 100¢ $20 70d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $18 74d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or higher on April 1 BUY No 100¢ $43 74d
Will Solana reach $100 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $75 80d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $44 80d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $14 95d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.46 · official $87.46 (match) · 128 history records