Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc684…2dc4 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-3%) realized −$14 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$26
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$30
crypto 21% +$3
culture 10% $0
world 5% $0
sports 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.6% -10.0% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -5.7% -14.6% 53% 13% -16.6%
≤90d 19 -13.5% -21.7% 53% 21% -17.2%
all 20 -12.6% -20.9% 55% 20% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 20% -17.1%
10% -28.5% 5% -25.0%
15% -35.4% 5% -32.3%
20% -41.7% 0% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage148d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-1%)
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 28 $2 $0 -2%
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jun 28 $48 −$3 -6%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $50 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $49 +$2 +5%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $34 −$11 -33%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $42 −$5 -12%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $38 $0 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $54 −$10 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $2 $0 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 30 $2 +$1 +40%
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 29 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $9 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $3 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 29 $1 $0 +10%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $2 −$1 -99%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs May 11 $1 $0 +15%
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 11 $2 $0 +14%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February? Feb 28 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $23 1h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $67 1h
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL No 90¢ $2 1h
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? SELL No 90¢ $45 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $52 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $49 12d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $50 12d
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $48 12d
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 91¢ $2 12d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $23 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $37 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $38 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $44 12d
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 85¢ $2 29d
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 62¢ $2 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 71¢ $2 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 29d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $42 29d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $34 29d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $54 29d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $38 29d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 29d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $3 29d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 47d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $3 47d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals BUY Punjab Kings 65¢ $1 47d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 47d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.78 · official $139.78 (match) · 90 history records