Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C6 0xc687…6ce2 other 204 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$164 (+10%) realized +$166 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%108W / 93L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$36
14 days−$46
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$111
sports 25% +$41
crypto 1% −$10
world 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -71.7% -74.4% 20% 20% -74.2%
≤30d 20 +37.8% +24.7% 55% 55% +4.7%
≤90d 192 +15.6% +4.6% 55% 54% -2.6%
all 201 +15.1% +4.1% 54% 53% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.1% 53% -1.0%
10% -5.8% 52% -10.5%
15% -14.9% 46% -19.1%
20% -23.3% 38% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$166
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses108 / 93
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)201 / 204
History coverage98d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $55 $57 +$2 (+4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $10 +$6 +62%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 +$41 +41%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$40 +784%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $20 +$10 +48%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$12 +118%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 May 15 $10 −$5 -54%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $50 +$14 +27%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 +$7 +73%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Inter win Coppa Italia? May 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $10 +$5 +48%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 +$29 +286%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 +$14 +134%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 +$4 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 14d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 16d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 57¢ $49 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 18d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 21d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 22d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 22d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 23d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 23d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 23d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 23d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 24d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 24d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 26d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 27d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? SELL No 100¢ $24 27d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? SELL No 100¢ $13 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.26 · official $68.26 (match) · 388 history records