Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:11:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc68b…b030 politics 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL +$14 (+11%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%9W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% $0
politics 29% −$17
sports 23% +$8
other 12% −$3
culture 3% $0
tech 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +12.9% +2.2% 25% 25% +2.5%
≤30d 8 +12.9% +2.2% 25% 25% +2.5%
≤90d 36 -10.6% -19.1% 25% 25% -20.3%
all 36 -10.6% -19.1% 25% 25% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 25% -20.3%
10% -26.8% 22% -27.9%
15% -33.9% 14% -34.9%
20% -40.4% 14% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses9 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)36 / 50
History coverage66d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 65¢ 83¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 44¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+129%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Yes 64¢ 97¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+52%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 86¢ 83¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 78¢ 79¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Yes 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 59¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will voter turnout be 68–71% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -50%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +127%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Apr 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Apr 13 $1 $0 -5%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 13 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Tisza win at least 120 seats? Apr 13 $3 −$1 -33%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Apr 13 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 13 $3 −$1 -38%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $4 −$3 -76%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will voter turnout be 74–77% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elect Apr 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Apr 12 $5 −$3 -70%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will voter turnout be 68–71% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elect Apr 12 $3 −$1 -47%
Hawks vs. Heat Apr 12 $1 $0 -17%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $3 $0 -3%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Apr 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Apr 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? Apr 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will Tisza win at least 90 seats? Apr 12 $2 $0 +14%
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats? Apr 12 $5 $0 -9%
Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 225.5 Apr 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 223.5 Apr 11 $1 +$1 +109%
Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 222.5 Apr 11 $1 +$1 +119%
Madrid: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Elvina Kalieva Apr 10 $3 +$3 +86%
Monza: Raphael Collignon vs Luca Van Assche Apr 10 $2 +$1 +29%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev Apr 10 $10 +$3 +33%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner Apr 10 $7 −$1 -10%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Apr 10 $2 $0 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 3m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 4m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 13m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $2 23m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 25m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 25m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 30m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 30m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 30m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 32m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $3 53m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.48 · official $27.48 (match) · 226 history records