Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:05:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc68c…40e4 other 61 markets active 6d ago coverage 1245d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$68 (-17%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate48%29W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$26
politics 38% −$24
crypto 6% −$22
finance 2% $0
tech 2% −$2
economics 1% −$2
sports 1% $0
weather 1% −$2
world 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -32.8% -39.2% 60% 40% -39.0%
≤30d 7 -37.4% -43.4% 57% 29% -43.2%
≤90d 18 -22.2% -29.6% 50% 39% -29.5%
all 61 -30.9% -37.4% 48% 26% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 26% -27.2%
10% -43.4% 10% -34.2%
15% -48.9% 8% -40.5%
20% -53.9% 7% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1245d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses29 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage1245d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 29? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31? May 27 $1 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "JD" or "Vance" this week? May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 5? May 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings? May 04 $1 $0 +14%
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 04 $1 $0 +39%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? May 04 $1 +$2 +186%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play Apr 03 $1 $0 +17%
Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19? Apr 02 $1 $0 -6%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Apr 02 $1 $0 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 02 $1 $0 +17%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 15 $1 $0 +0%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 06 $1 $0 +5%
Will Teleflex (TFX) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 06 $1 +$2 +245%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Feb 25 $1 $0 +15%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on February 5? Feb 25 $1 $0 +19%
Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Will BNY (BK) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 05 $1 $0 +12%
Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports (BO3) Jan 11 $1 $0 +1%
India ODI Series: India vs South Africa (Game 3) Jan 11 $1 $0 +10%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $285-$290 on the final day of trading of Nov 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will India win? Nov 16 $1 −$1 -100%
John Brennan arrested by October 31? Nov 16 $1 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 16 $1 $0 +24%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April? Sep 27 $1 $0 +14%
Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the March meeting? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Was Trump hacked? Mar 17 $1 $0 +3%
Texans vs. Chiefs Mar 17 $1 $0 +20%
Solana above $170 on November 8? Jan 18 $0 $0 -100%
S&P500 all time high after election is called? Jan 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times November 1-8? Jan 18 $0 $0 -100%
GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024? Jan 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Democratic candidate win Iowa by 3.0-4.0%? Jan 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Solana hit $270 in December? Jan 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 20 $143 −$24 -17%
Litecoin ETF approved by July 31? Dec 19 $184 −$20 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 86¢ $1 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 93¢ $1 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 82¢ $1 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 29? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 21d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 71¢ $1 21d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY Yes 23¢ $1 44d
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "JD" or "Vance" this week? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 44d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 5? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 44d
Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $1 44d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? BUY No $1 44d
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 75d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play BUY G2 85¢ $1 76d
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 76d
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 76d
Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 76d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 76d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 94d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 94d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 94d
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 94d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 104d
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 104d
Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 104d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 112d
Will Teleflex (TFX) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 29¢ $1 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 112d
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records