Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:49:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc692…1f64 politics 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$117 (-1%) realized −$117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$11
politics 43% −$12
sports 5% −$98
tech 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 107 -2.3% -11.6% 4% 2% -9.7%
all 121 -6.2% -15.1% 6% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 2% -10.0%
10% -23.2% 2% -18.6%
15% -30.7% 2% -26.5%
20% -37.5% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 114
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage117d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $194 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 04 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $25 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $198 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $165 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $194 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $178 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $353 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $203 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $187 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $197 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $333 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $153 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $387 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $154 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $178 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $310 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $355 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $156 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $344 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $145 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $157 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $149 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $147 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $208 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 06 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $162 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $178 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $172 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $195 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $181 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $175 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $352 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $187 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $372 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 19 $183 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 2h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 15h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 27h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 40h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 40h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 9d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 12d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 14d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 14d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 15d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 15d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 16d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 17d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $28 17d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $28 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 18d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 19d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 19d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 19d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 19d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 20d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 21d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 22d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $165 22d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $165 24d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $194 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 355 history records