Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc692…dfa6 world 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$392 (-5%) realized −$317 · open −$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%33W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$228
14 days−$228
30 days−$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$232
other 15% −$268
sports 12% −$200
economics 6% −$68
politics 5% −$77
crypto 1% −$15
finance 1% −$40
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -27.1% -34.0% 20% 0% -33.9%
≤30d 13 -37.3% -43.2% 15% 8% -33.4%
≤90d 48 -19.6% -27.3% 29% 27% -22.9%
all 87 -12.5% -20.9% 38% 33% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 33% -13.8%
10% -28.4% 21% -22.1%
15% -35.4% 18% -29.6%
20% -41.7% 15% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$28 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized−$317
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses33 / 54
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage369d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 42¢ 34¢ $390 $315 −$75 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 $0 +1%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $225 −$17 -8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $400 −$111 -28%
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 −$1 -1%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? May 31 $50 −$50 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca May 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte May 25 $304 +$51 +17%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $50 −$23 -47%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 23 $155 −$41 -27%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $110 −$35 -32%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $50 −$5 -10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 21 $30 −$15 -50%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $51 +$35 +68%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $31 +$63 +204%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $154 −$83 -54%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Israel come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $31 −$11 -34%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$4 -39%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $41 +$159 +388%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 07 $171 −$128 -75%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 07 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a d Apr 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $30 +$21 +70%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $50 +$25 +50%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 18 $5 +$10 +190%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $50 +$30 +59%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $400 +$61 +15%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $30 −$11 -38%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Apr 14 $50 −$12 -24%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 14 $150 −$70 -46%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 08 $30 −$25 -83%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 07 $50 +$25 +50%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31 Apr 07 $20 −$12 -62%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $110 −$2 -2%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $400 +$89 +22%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 22 $30 −$19 -63%
Will Massimiliano Allegri be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Mar 22 $30 −$27 -90%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $21 38m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $208 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $225 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 66¢ $290 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $400 2h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Conor McGregor 31¢ $101 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $102 2d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 30¢ $102 15d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 15d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 17d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 84¢ $100 17d
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte SELL Yes 100¢ $250 23d
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte BUY Yes 80¢ $101 24d
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte BUY Yes 80¢ $101 24d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL No 25¢ $27 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? SELL No 37¢ $114 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? SELL No 22¢ $75 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $45 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $50 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY No 32¢ $30 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY No 33¢ $20 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 47¢ $50 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY No 32¢ $60 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? BUY No 52¢ $20 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? BUY No 51¢ $100 25d
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte SELL Yes 63¢ $105 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? BUY No 48¢ $35 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? SELL No 4¢ $15 27d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? BUY No 8¢ $30 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.77 · official $314.77 (match) · 247 history records