Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:22:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc693…72db other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$15,174 (-48%) realized −$12,389 · open −$2,785
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%3W / 17L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,365per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$193est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$3,187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$9,569
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$537
sports 39% −$10,815
politics 12% −$3,331
world 6% −$979
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -83.0% -84.6% 0% 0% -91.3%
≤90d 18 -37.1% -43.1% 17% 17% -43.3%
all 20 -43.4% -48.8% 15% 15% -52.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.8% 15% -52.2%
10% -53.7% 15% -56.8%
15% -58.1% 15% -61.0%
20% -62.3% 15% -64.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$1,999) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -72% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,621 vs −$1,157 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$3,187
Realized−$12,389
Unrealized−$2,785
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses3 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$193
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage252d
Avg bet$1,365
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 42¢ 56¢ $2,000 $2,673 +$673 (+34%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $472 $346 −$127 (-27%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 19¢ $3,500 $169 −$3,331 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 27 $1,999 −$979 -49%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $2,040 −$2,000 -98%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 23 $6,715 −$6,589 -98%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $1,966 −$1,933 -98%
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $24 −$23 -97%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $103 +$512 +499%
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims) May 01 $231 +$241 +104%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 19 $1,000 −$979 -98%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 16 $334 −$324 -97%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $4,000 +$7,111 +178%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $1,282 −$1,282 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jacob Bridgeman win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $630 −$630 -100%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 26 $1,928 −$1,928 -100%
Lions vs. Chiefs Oct 13 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $205 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $280 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 42¢ $2,035 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1,020 25d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Avalanche 32¢ $1,020 25d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Avalanche 33¢ $1,020 25d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $927 29d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $392 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $48 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $32 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $120 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,187.07 · official $3,187.07 (match) · 133 history records