Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C6 0xc693…b113 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,006 (+30%) realized +$1,006 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +146% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +123% what you keep after slip
Net edge+123%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$996
world 31% +$8
crypto 15% +$1
other 10% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+122.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +12.5% +1.8% 100% 100% +1.8%
≤30d 1 +12.5% +1.8% 100% 100% +1.8%
≤90d 13 +146.3% +122.9% 69% 15% +17.8%
all 13 +146.3% +122.9% 69% 15% +17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +122.9% 15% +17.8%
10% +101.5% 8% +6.5%
15% +82.1% 8% -3.8%
20% +64.2% 8% -13.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +146% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +286% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$3 · ×43.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×196.99 per $1 lost it wins $196.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,006
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage71d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Jun 19 $46 +$6 +12%
Spread: IK Start (-1.5) May 17 $498 +$7 +2%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May May 16 $498 +$1 +0%
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) May 16 $48 +$955 +1983%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? May 15 $27 $0 +0%
Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5) May 14 $492 +$7 +2%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? May 13 $489 +$2 +0%
Spread: AS Roma (-2.5) Apr 26 $432 +$32 +7%
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? Apr 25 $433 $0 +0%
Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-2.5) Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: CD Guadalajara (-2.5) Apr 11 $1 $0 -6%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Apr 11 $71 $0 +0%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Apr 10 $300 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL Yes $27 1h
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL Yes $24 1h
Russia coup attempt in 2026? BUY Yes $23 29h
Russia coup attempt in 2026? BUY Yes $22 29h
Spread: IK Start (-1.5) BUY Viking FK 98¢ $498 34d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May SELL No 99¢ $499 34d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May BUY No 99¢ $498 34d
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) BUY Auckland FC $24 35d
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) BUY Auckland FC $24 35d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $13 35d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $13 35d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $12 35d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $14 35d
Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5) BUY FC Machida Zelvia 98¢ $5 37d
Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5) BUY FC Machida Zelvia 98¢ $487 37d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $394 37d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $97 37d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $489 37d
Spread: AS Roma (-2.5) BUY Bologna FC 1909 93¢ $339 55d
Spread: AS Roma (-2.5) BUY Bologna FC 1909 93¢ $93 55d
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $433 55d
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $433 55d
Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-2.5) BUY Deportivo Alavés $3 69d
Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-2.5) BUY Deportivo Alavés $2 69d
Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-2.5) BUY Deportivo Alavés $1 69d
Spread: CD Guadalajara (-2.5) SELL CD Guadalajara $0 69d
Spread: CD Guadalajara (-2.5) BUY CD Guadalajara $1 69d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $36 69d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $35 69d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $36 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records