Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc694…1171 sports 587 markets active 5h ago coverage 118d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,899 (+3%) realized +$1,909 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%254W / 377L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Fees−$578est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 118d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$25
other 10% +$417
world 5% −$790
crypto 1% −$36
politics 1% +$446
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -46.4% -51.5% 24% 22% -31.9%
≤30d 181 -15.5% -23.5% 43% 35% -9.1%
≤90d 398 -13.3% -21.6% 38% 34% -14.6%
all 631 -5.0% -14.0% 40% 36% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 36% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 33% -20.7%
15% -29.8% 30% -28.4%
20% -36.7% 26% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$70 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$1,909
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses254 / 377
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$578
Open positions2
Markets (closed)631 / 587
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$121
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 631 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-89%)
Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 279 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jun 15 $113 −$91 -81%
Counter-Strike: kONO.ECF vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Grou Jun 15 $53 −$54 -102%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Pisa SC win on 2025-12-27? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-14? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Jun 15 $112 −$112 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-02-15? Jun 15 $42 −$48 -114%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western Jun 15 $156 −$156 -100%
Ranger FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 15 $35 −$122 -347%
Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 15 $238 −$238 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $38 −$21 -54%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-28? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-25? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Hornets vs. Clippers Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 28? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
SV Werder Bremen vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $62 −$62 -101%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Paris FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$7 -189%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -102%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $12 −$16 -137%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-01-01? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-11? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Rybakina Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $255 −$255 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $204 −$76 -37%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $37 +$358 +968%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $393 −$36 -9%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$1 -29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $135 +$99 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 0¢ $28 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 0¢ $50 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 0¢ $13 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 0¢ $0 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 0¢ $0 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 0¢ $10 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 2¢ $58 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 2¢ $16 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 3¢ $84 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 79¢ $32 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 79¢ $363 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 0¢ $8 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 0¢ $11 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 0¢ $10 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 0¢ $10 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 1¢ $15 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 1¢ $14 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 1¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 35¢ $173 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $178 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 46¢ $14 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 46¢ $8 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 47¢ $156 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 46¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 46¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs SELL Metizport 33¢ $3 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $57 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $4 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.90 · official $1.90 (match) · 3500 history records