Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C6 0xc697…2e77 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$32 (-3%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days−$39
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$72
sports 48% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 33% -16.4%
≤30d 23 +30.8% +18.4% 48% 48% -10.0%
≤90d 23 +30.8% +18.4% 48% 48% -10.0%
all 23 +30.8% +18.4% 48% 48% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.4% 48% -10.0%
10% +7.0% 48% -18.6%
15% -3.3% 48% -26.5%
20% -12.8% 43% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$51 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage10d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$129 +129%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $20 −$19 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $80 −$78 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $80 −$78 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$39 -39%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$8 -38%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $20 −$19 -96%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $20 +$90 +452%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $20 +$14 +68%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -96%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$49 +246%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$90 +299%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$34 +68%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 +$73 +242%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $40 +$37 +91%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $60 +$32 +54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$48 +97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $105 −$103 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $229 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $100 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $80 5d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $80 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 45¢ $61 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 30¢ $28 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 6d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $100 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 47¢ $110 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 18¢ $34 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 7d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $80 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $84 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $50 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 8d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $40 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 96¢ $98 10d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $100 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records