Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc698…b8d0 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$522 (+10%) realized +$524 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$289
7 days−$289
14 days−$289
30 days−$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$387
crypto 3% −$110
economics 2% −$72
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-70.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -5.8% -14.8% 0% 0% -14.8%
≤30d 4 +11.9% +1.2% 25% 25% -15.1%
≤90d 4 +11.9% +1.2% 25% 25% -15.1%
all 18 -67.9% -70.9% 6% 6% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.9% 6% -19.1%
10% -73.7% 6% -26.8%
15% -76.2% 6% -33.9%
20% -78.6% 6% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -91% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$36 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$524
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage164d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $4,962 −$289 -6%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 28 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 28 $26 +$45 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 12-18? Jan 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $20 −$11 -54%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 08 $36 −$36 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 08 $40 −$25 -61%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 08 $23 −$3 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026? Jan 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4,672 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 11d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 15d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 15d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $74 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4,958 22d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 24d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 24d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $7 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up $6 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up $2 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $42 124d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 12-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 153d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes $9 153d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $16 162d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes $15 162d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $20 162d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes $20 162d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes $23 164d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $20 164d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $20 164d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $20 164d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY Yes $20 164d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $50 164d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY Yes $20 164d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 5? BUY Yes $10 164d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.64 · official $5.64 (match) · 56 history records