Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc69a…7537 crypto 46 markets active 8h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$60 (-6%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate67%31W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$58
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$19
other 22% −$41
sports 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -7.2% -16.1% 67% 15% -15.9%
≤30d 39 -7.2% -16.1% 67% 15% -15.9%
≤90d 39 -7.2% -16.1% 67% 15% -15.9%
all 46 -9.0% -17.7% 67% 15% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 15% -15.6%
10% -25.6% 11% -23.6%
15% -32.7% 11% -31.0%
20% -39.3% 11% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses31 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage197d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $155 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $110 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$38 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $46 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 −$40 -76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 8? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on December 8? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 8? Dec 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 8? Dec 08 $19 −$10 -55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 7? Dec 08 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 7? Dec 08 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 7? Dec 08 $68 +$3 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 6? Dec 07 $9 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 30? Dec 01 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 9h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $84 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records