Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:15:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc69f…b2ee other 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$55 (-0%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%18W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days−$26
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$23
politics 27% −$15
sports 16% −$19
crypto 10% −$4
economics 5% $0
finance 4% −$3
world 3% −$3
tech 3% −$5
culture 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.7% -10.1% 4% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 63 -0.8% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 114 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.8%
all 135 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses18 / 117
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage101d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $437 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $284 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 17 $155 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $507 −$4 -1%
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $43 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 14 $116 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $58 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $103 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $52 −$3 -7%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $111 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 11 $54 −$2 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $40 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $106 −$2 -2%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 07 $63 −$1 -1%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $106 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $114 −$1 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 04 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 03 $47 $0 +1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $46 $0 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $109 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $57 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $576 −$3 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $56 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $376 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $123 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $58 58m
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $61 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $61 9h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $50 10h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $21 18h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $29 18h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $35 18h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 24h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $61 25h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $61 30h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $57 31h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $58 35h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 35h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 43h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $21 44h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $21 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $66 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $66 2d
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 98¢ $65 2d
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $65 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $43 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $43 2d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $53 2d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $54 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $45 3d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $46 3d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 3d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.16 · official $57.16 (match) · 477 history records