Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:57:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C6 0xc6a1…dbef crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,080 (-7%) realized −$1,079 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%51W / 2L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,603now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$5
politics 37% −$1,086
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 53 -2.0% -11.3% 96% 0% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -17.4%
10% -19.8% 0% -25.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -32.5%
20% -34.7% 0% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$548 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$2,603
Realized−$1,079
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses51 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage616d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,360 $1,359 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $844 $844 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $400 $400 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,645 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $652 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $299 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,344 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,249 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $78 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 10 $51 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Feb 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Feb 17 $15 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Feb 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Feb 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Feb 17 $53 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Feb 17 $86 +$1 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in October? Oct 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 09 $3 $0 +1%
Will Tencent have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Oct 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 09 $4 $0 +1%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Oct 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Oct 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Oct 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Oct 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in September? Oct 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Se Oct 09 $9 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Oct 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 09 $58 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 09 $71 $0 +0%
Will the Green Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canadia May 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in British Columbia in the May 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C May 29 $4 $0 +1%
Will another party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canadian May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the People's Party win the most seats in British Columbia in the May 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 29 $288 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $844 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $400 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1,360 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $652 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,645 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $299 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,249 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,344 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $29 104d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $78 104d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $19 104d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $41 104d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $56 104d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $15 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $39 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $19 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $51 125d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 99¢ $13 125d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $34 125d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $23 125d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $29 125d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $40 255d
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? BUY No 99¢ $53 255d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $86 255d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $15 255d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $12 255d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $15 255d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in October? BUY No 99¢ $10 255d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 99¢ $71 279d
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect BUY No 100¢ $6 279d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,603.29 · official $2,603.29 (match) · 109 history records