Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6a6…fec7 other 202 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$1,260 (-2%) realized −$1,752 · open +$492
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate49%97W / 102L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day59.0pace
Fees−$141est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$4,538now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$287
7 days+$202
14 days+$581
30 days+$802
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$406
sports 33% +$17
world 2% +$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +4.4% -5.6% 61% 44% -6.2%
≤30d 64 +7.0% -3.2% 53% 34% -5.6%
≤90d 199 +16.0% +5.0% 49% 31% -9.3%
all 199 +16.0% +5.0% 49% 31% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.0% 31% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -5.1% 19% -18.0%
15% -14.2% 13% -25.9%
20% -22.6% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +29% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$87 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$4,538
Realized−$1,752
Unrealized+$492
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses97 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$141
Open positions3
Markets (closed)199 / 202
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$319
Trades / day59.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 90¢ 100¢ $2,262 $2,526 +$263 (+12%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? No 78¢ 96¢ $1,610 $1,984 +$374 (+23%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 27¢ 4¢ $175 $29 −$146 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $29 +$11 +38%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $183 +$18 +10%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 22 $154 −$154 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $260 +$145 +56%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $364 −$364 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $233 +$170 +73%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $276 +$140 +51%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $377 +$58 +15%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $429 +$139 +32%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $227 −$2 -1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $615 +$20 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $345 −$169 -49%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $238 +$203 +85%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $496 −$57 -12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $527 −$54 -10%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $474 +$18 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $233 +$195 +84%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $209 +$24 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $497 −$2 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $434 −$32 -7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $236 +$226 +96%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 −$4 -2%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $296 +$49 +17%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $355 +$107 +30%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $262 +$43 +16%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $224 +$203 +91%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $462 −$78 -17%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $533 −$136 -25%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $200 +$17 +9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $257 −$50 -19%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $200 +$11 +5%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $406 +$16 +4%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $343 −$138 -40%
Will Girona FC vs. Elche CF end in a draw? May 24 $236 +$30 +13%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a dr May 24 $344 −$26 -8%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 24 $281 −$72 -26%
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 24 $582 −$62 -11%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $242 +$17 +7%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $350 −$5 -1%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $274 +$72 +26%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $258 +$78 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $175 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $175 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $176 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $176 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $176 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $176 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 90¢ $127 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 90¢ $180 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 92¢ $184 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 19¢ $27 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 21¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 23¢ $16 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 23¢ $4 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 94¢ $187 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 31¢ $64 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 90¢ $180 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 90¢ $179 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 90¢ $179 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $156 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $157 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $157 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 31¢ $64 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $157 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $157 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $157 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $157 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $158 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $158 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $158 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,538.46 · official $4,538.46 (match) · 3500 history records